Statistics

Несмотря на очень оптимистические заверения в том, что «численность народа Бога продолжает расти и это доказывает благословения Иеговы», наблюдается  резкое снижение темпов роста численности членов организации за последние годы.

Если посмотреть всемирные отчёты за 2002-2005 годы, можно увидеть следующее. Рост в процентном отношении: 2002 год – 2,8%, 2003 год – 2,2%, 2004 год – 2,0%, 2005 год – 1,3%. Уменьшение темпов роста  в среднем на 0,5% в год по всему миру. Вот как это выражалось в численном эквиваленте. В 2002 году среднее число возвещателей составляло 6 мил. 049 тысяч человек, в 2003 году – 6 мил. 184 тыс.,  в 2004 году – 6 мил. 308 тыс., в 2005 году – 6 мил. 390 тыс. (смотрите таблицу ниже).

Годы Число

publishers Growth Decrease in percentage growth compared to the previous year 2002 6 mil. 049K 2,8 % -- 2003 6 mil. 184K 2,2% by 0.6% 2004 6 mil. 308K 2,0% by 0.2% 2005 6 mil. 390 thousand 1,3% by 0.7%  

Interestingly, 15 countries in Europe have seen a steady decline in the number of publishers over the past few years. This is happening in Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Sweden and Switzerland. There is absolutely no growth in Hungary, Moldova and the UK. There is minimal growth in Italy, Spain and France.

For example, in Germany in 2003 there were 163,000 people, and in 2005 there were 162,500, although more than 7,000 people were baptized during these 2 years. The question arises: "Where did the 6.5 thousand go?" Take Italy, the most prosperous country for Jehovah's Witnesses in Western Europe. In 2003, 230 thousand people served there, in 2005 - 232 thousand. It seems to be an increase of 2 thousand people. But it is interesting that in 2 years about 10 thousand people were baptized. And here the question is: "Where did the 8 thousand go?" Interestingly, this proportion is maintained throughout the world, i.e., the greater the numerical increase, the greater the discrepancy between the number of publishers and the number of those baptized, in other words, the more publishers there are, the greater the number of "missing" baptized members, who seem to have sunk into obscurity. If you look at it in Italy, it turns out that 2 thousand were added, but 10 thousand were baptized, i.e. from simple arithmetic it follows that the increase should be a maximum of 10 thousand, but it was only 2 thousand. If we take into account natural deaths, then perhaps 2-3 thousand died, taking into account the age of the population of Jehovah's Witnesses in Italy. Then we will get a figure of 7-8 thousand growth, but it is only 2 thousand? This means that another 5-6 thousand people have left the organization in Italy over the past 2 years. 2-3 thousand a year. Nobody talks about it. And why. This will not strengthen faith or increase optimism in the ministry.

And now let's take our country. Here everything seems to be very well for Jehovah's Witnesses because Russia is almost the main percentage supplier in the world growth, after Mexico and Brazil. However, if we look at how things are in Russia, we can understand something.

So, in 2003, 127,000 publishers served in Russia, and in 2005 there were already 142,500. It turns out to be an increase of 15.5 thousand. During these 2 years, about 15.5 thousand were also baptized. An interesting fact that shows, based on my experience as an elder, that in Russia this ratio is as follows: the number of baptisms increases. But this is for the country as a whole. And here it should be said specifically: for example, in my congregation only 2 people were baptized in 2 years, and 15 people "left", were deprived of fellowship, or simply ceased to be publishers, disappeared from sight and stopped attending meetings. So judge what a height! Therefore, the growth is mainly due to new gatherings and new territories.

 In other countries, where the history of Jehovah's Witnesses goes back a hundred years or more, there is now an equally massive withdrawal from the organization, if not even greater. This will be confirmed if you look at the state of affairs around the world. For example, there has been a marked decline in publisher growth in Australia and Canada, as well as zero growth in Japan and the United States. This is very significant because these countries are the "flagships" of the Watch Tower Society throughout the world and in their respective regions.

Now let's turn our attention to the record holders in terms of numerical and percentage growth. Let's see how things are in another, perhaps the most prosperous country in the world (for Jehovah's Witnesses), in Brazil. In 203, there were 576,000 publishers, and in 2005 there were 609,000. It seems to be a tremendous increase of 33 thousand, but it is interesting that during these 2 years 61.5 thousand were baptized! Where are the other 28 thousand? Most likely, outside the Watchtower organization. They simply left it for various reasons (let's say again that perhaps only 3-4 thousand died). Of course, for 609k members, leaving 28k doesn't mean anything?! But this is 4.6% of the total number of all members, i.e. out of 100 people, 5 left. And if we consider that the congregation of Jehovah's Witnesses consists of approximately 100 people, then it is clear that 5 people from each congregation left the organization in 2 years. By the way, according to my observations, this is exactly the indicator that is observed in Russia, in those collections that have existed for 10-15 years.